Forecast
In 2009 we expect to see a sharp downturn in the global economy and a continuing recession.
Monetary policy is currently tending towards an expansionary stance worldwide. In view of the drastic slowdown in economic activity and the risk of deflation, central banks have sharply eased their policy on interest rates. In the United States the Federal Reserve moved to a zero interest rate policy in the middle of December 2008. Economic stimulus packages have already been launched in many countries with a view to alleviating the slumping economy. Further measures intended to revive the economy will probably be unveiled in the course of the year. Despite all the efforts of governments and central banks to stabilise the financial sector and stimulate business activity, the global economy will probably show only very minimal growth in 2009.
With consumption already on the wane in the United States, exports are now also declining. This is likely to be reflected in a sharp contraction in gross domestic product. The European Union is experiencing the most pronounced slump in manufacturing output in its existence. Domestic and foreign demand will drop significantly in 2009 and real gross domestic product will fall. Prospects for the emerging markets have also taken a considerably darker turn.
In Germany the recession is being driven first and foremost by a sharp decline in exports. It is still uncertain whether the steps taken by the federal government to boost the economy will begin to bite. Real gross domestic product will probably contract in 2009. Provided there is no further bad news to reinforce the downward trend, the economic situation is expected to stabilise gradually in the second half of the year.